Comments on: If this is the only answer, we’re truly fucked http://rhinocrisy.org/2005/09/if-this-is-the-only-answer-were-truly-fucked/ Sat, 11 Feb 2012 16:44:32 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: saurabh http://rhinocrisy.org/2005/09/if-this-is-the-only-answer-were-truly-fucked/#comment-33203 saurabh Sat, 31 May 2008 20:51:08 +0000 http://rhinocrisy.org/?p=420#comment-33203 Err, this is many years late, but in response to Kush Tandon, in case someone stumbles across this and is incorrectly persuaded - LNG is already constrained. Greenspan warned about this in a famous speech in - 2003? maybe. I don't remember when. LNG is also a much more local market than oil - transporting it is much harder. It is unlikely to replace oil as an energy source. And, since tar sands rely on LNG to produce usable fuels, they are similarly constrained. Err, this is many years late, but in response to Kush Tandon, in case someone stumbles across this and is incorrectly persuaded - LNG is already constrained. Greenspan warned about this in a famous speech in - 2003? maybe. I don’t remember when. LNG is also a much more local market than oil - transporting it is much harder. It is unlikely to replace oil as an energy source. And, since tar sands rely on LNG to produce usable fuels, they are similarly constrained.

]]> By: Anonymous http://rhinocrisy.org/2005/09/if-this-is-the-only-answer-were-truly-fucked/#comment-181 Anonymous Sun, 25 Sep 2005 17:36:40 +0000 http://rhinocrisy.org/?p=420#comment-181 Your account is indeed correct, Hedgehog. Your dimunitive brain is clearly useful for more than burrowing and foraging! And your memory's better than mine, too. I didn't realize which part of the overall horrific enterprise you were referring to. <br/><br/>That book and Into Thin Air though - whew, enough to make you think the whole mountain climbing thing - well, that there might be better hobbies. <br/><br/>Coincidentally, I'm reading Into the Wild right now, another of Krakauer's Adventures-Gone-Wrong ouevre.  <br/><br/><a></a><a></a>Posted by<a><b> </b></a><a HREF="http://stribs.blogspot.com" REL="nofollow" TITLE="stribsOMITCAPS at hotmail dot com">Robert S.</a> Your account is indeed correct, Hedgehog. Your dimunitive brain is clearly useful for more than burrowing and foraging! And your memory’s better than mine, too. I didn’t realize which part of the overall horrific enterprise you were referring to.

That book and Into Thin Air though - whew, enough to make you think the whole mountain climbing thing - well, that there might be better hobbies.

Coincidentally, I’m reading Into the Wild right now, another of Krakauer’s Adventures-Gone-Wrong ouevre.  

Posted by Robert S.

]]> By: Anonymous http://rhinocrisy.org/2005/09/if-this-is-the-only-answer-were-truly-fucked/#comment-180 Anonymous Sat, 24 Sep 2005 16:45:21 +0000 http://rhinocrisy.org/?p=420#comment-180 hedgehog,<br/><br/>I will be the first to accept that their is a big problem. However, energy business/ politics is not for faint-hearted. I always recommend people to read Daniel Yergin's "The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power."<br/><br/>Sure, big oil discoveries have recently been few and far between. However, the <b>age of natural gas </b> is waiting to be ushered and perhaps would be the catalyst for hydrogen economy. Huge investments are underway for LNG (liquefied natural gas), especially in Qatar.<br/><br/>I need to find time and write my thoughts - my head is spinning with multiple ideas.<br/><br/><b>PS:</b> Countries like Libya and Iran are not even realizing their potenetial because of lack of investment, use of cutting edge technology for last 30-40 years. To some degree (lesser though), same is the case for Russia. Long term exploration is very expensive and risky - countries like Saudi Arabia have stayed away as if you owned expensive land but have been holding off for development because you do not want the rent of the houses you already own to go down.<br/><br/><b>PPS:</b> I agree with you that next peak is coming - we do not know when. <br/><br/><a></a><a></a>Posted by<a><b> </b></a><a HREF="http://kushtandon.squarespace.com" REL="nofollow" TITLE="kushtandon at yahoo dot com">Kush Tandon</a> hedgehog,

I will be the first to accept that their is a big problem. However, energy business/ politics is not for faint-hearted. I always recommend people to read Daniel Yergin’s “The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power.”

Sure, big oil discoveries have recently been few and far between. However, the age of natural gas  is waiting to be ushered and perhaps would be the catalyst for hydrogen economy. Huge investments are underway for LNG (liquefied natural gas), especially in Qatar.

I need to find time and write my thoughts - my head is spinning with multiple ideas.

PS: Countries like Libya and Iran are not even realizing their potenetial because of lack of investment, use of cutting edge technology for last 30-40 years. To some degree (lesser though), same is the case for Russia. Long term exploration is very expensive and risky - countries like Saudi Arabia have stayed away as if you owned expensive land but have been holding off for development because you do not want the rent of the houses you already own to go down.

PPS: I agree with you that next peak is coming - we do not know when. 

Posted by Kush Tandon

]]> By: Anonymous http://rhinocrisy.org/2005/09/if-this-is-the-only-answer-were-truly-fucked/#comment-179 Anonymous Sat, 24 Sep 2005 07:42:15 +0000 http://rhinocrisy.org/?p=420#comment-179 But doomsday laments feel so good!<br/><br/>Seriously though: <br/>1. China and India are not going away.<br/>2. Iraq is likely permanently jacked due to oilfield mismanagement, first by Saddam and even more so in the years since he fell. Venezuela is now supplying more than ever. I don't know much about Libya. What are their supposed problems? <br/>3. Plenty of people, especially Matthew Simmons, seem to think the Middle East has been pretty well explored. Geologist Greg Croft said the same thing, but said that wasn't a coincidence -- he was one of Simmons' sources. (Does "gluted" have something to do with buttocks?)<br/>4. The lack of new refineries could be evidence that the oil companies have accepted that they aren't going to get much more supply -- which is what I heard from <a HREF="http://rhinocrisy.blogspot.com/2005/09/oily-irony.html" REL="nofollow">Greg Croft</a> . Have there even been any refineries proposed in the last 20 years? I don't know the answer.<br/><br/>Rather than focus on such minutiae, Heinberg recommended looking at the long-term curve of oil finds. Basically, we're clearly on the tail of the bell curve for discoveries. What that means is that we have a sense of how much oil we've got, that it's not eternal, and that we've used a lot of it already. The next peak could come in anything from 1 to 20 years, but it is coming, and we are already feeling the effects. <br/><br/><a></a><a></a>Posted by<a><b> </b></a><a HREF="rhinocrisy.blogspot.com" REL="nofollow" TITLE="">hedgehog</a> But doomsday laments feel so good!

Seriously though:
1. China and India are not going away.
2. Iraq is likely permanently jacked due to oilfield mismanagement, first by Saddam and even more so in the years since he fell. Venezuela is now supplying more than ever. I don’t know much about Libya. What are their supposed problems?
3. Plenty of people, especially Matthew Simmons, seem to think the Middle East has been pretty well explored. Geologist Greg Croft said the same thing, but said that wasn’t a coincidence — he was one of Simmons’ sources. (Does “gluted” have something to do with buttocks?)
4. The lack of new refineries could be evidence that the oil companies have accepted that they aren’t going to get much more supply — which is what I heard from Greg Croft . Have there even been any refineries proposed in the last 20 years? I don’t know the answer.

Rather than focus on such minutiae, Heinberg recommended looking at the long-term curve of oil finds. Basically, we’re clearly on the tail of the bell curve for discoveries. What that means is that we have a sense of how much oil we’ve got, that it’s not eternal, and that we’ve used a lot of it already. The next peak could come in anything from 1 to 20 years, but it is coming, and we are already feeling the effects. 

Posted by hedgehog

]]> By: Anonymous http://rhinocrisy.org/2005/09/if-this-is-the-only-answer-were-truly-fucked/#comment-178 Anonymous Sat, 24 Sep 2005 07:09:45 +0000 http://rhinocrisy.org/?p=420#comment-178 Guys,<br/><br/>Before you all go on some doomsday, cleansing lament. Please read this:<br/><br/>http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html<br/><br/>Sure, there is a crisis at hand. However, it has always been a crisis, and a challenge. <br/><br/>Correction: The reserves for tar sands is even larger than entire Saudi Arabia reserves.<br/><br/><b>The current crisis is due to:</b> <br/><br/>1) Sudden surge in demand by China, and India.<br/>2) Problems in some of the supplies recently - Iraq, Venezuela, Libya.<br/>3) Practically, no frontier exploration in last 20 years in Middle East, Saudi Arabia wanted that way for some clever reasons so that the market does not really get gluted like it did in 80s.<br/>4) No new refineries built in last 20 years in USA.<br/> <br/><br/><a></a><a></a>Posted by<a><b> </b></a><a HREF="http://kushtandon.squarespace.com" REL="nofollow" TITLE="kushtandon at yahoo dot com">Kush Tandon</a> Guys,

Before you all go on some doomsday, cleansing lament. Please read this:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html

Sure, there is a crisis at hand. However, it has always been a crisis, and a challenge.

Correction: The reserves for tar sands is even larger than entire Saudi Arabia reserves.

The current crisis is due to: 

1) Sudden surge in demand by China, and India.
2) Problems in some of the supplies recently - Iraq, Venezuela, Libya.
3) Practically, no frontier exploration in last 20 years in Middle East, Saudi Arabia wanted that way for some clever reasons so that the market does not really get gluted like it did in 80s.
4) No new refineries built in last 20 years in USA.
 

Posted by Kush Tandon

]]> By: Anonymous http://rhinocrisy.org/2005/09/if-this-is-the-only-answer-were-truly-fucked/#comment-177 Anonymous Fri, 23 Sep 2005 17:07:21 +0000 http://rhinocrisy.org/?p=420#comment-177 See, Robert, if you hadn't said anything my brain would have glided over that and digested the metaphor as quickly as possible. Now it's been exposed for all its raw power and I'm going to have to go read the book and it sounds rather painful.:-p At least I know the guy lived. Hope for civilization, at least?<br/><br/>So Hedgehog <i>is</i>  planning on capitalizing on his underground experience. Well, always good to know an expert.  <br/><br/><a></a><a></a>Posted by<a><b> </b></a><a HREF="http://ssrdatta.blogspot.com" REL="nofollow" TITLE="sahelidatta at hotmail dot com">Saheli</a> See, Robert, if you hadn’t said anything my brain would have glided over that and digested the metaphor as quickly as possible. Now it’s been exposed for all its raw power and I’m going to have to go read the book and it sounds rather painful.:-p At least I know the guy lived. Hope for civilization, at least?

So Hedgehog is  planning on capitalizing on his underground experience. Well, always good to know an expert.  

Posted by Saheli

]]> By: Anonymous http://rhinocrisy.org/2005/09/if-this-is-the-only-answer-were-truly-fucked/#comment-176 Anonymous Fri, 23 Sep 2005 15:30:16 +0000 http://rhinocrisy.org/?p=420#comment-176 Yes, touching the void. I am fixing that. But I think I was right about who cut what, though memory in small creatures is notoriously spotty. First the guy up above had to cut the rope. Then after the injured guy below fell a ways and hit the glacier below, he went right into a crevasse and his rope got hung up on a chunk of ice, saving him from death. So he was hanging in a void, injured, in the dark. When it got light, he could see his predicament, so he cut himself loose. The only way out was down. Which was my point -- it could be that our only way out is down. Which I, as a burrowing animal, am used to experiencing. But you folks might dislike that my house has the smell of death and excrement and is pitch dark all the time. <br/><br/><a></a><a></a>Posted by<a><b> </b></a><a HREF="rhinocrisy.blogspot.com" REL="nofollow" TITLE="">hedgehog</a> Yes, touching the void. I am fixing that. But I think I was right about who cut what, though memory in small creatures is notoriously spotty. First the guy up above had to cut the rope. Then after the injured guy below fell a ways and hit the glacier below, he went right into a crevasse and his rope got hung up on a chunk of ice, saving him from death. So he was hanging in a void, injured, in the dark. When it got light, he could see his predicament, so he cut himself loose. The only way out was down. Which was my point — it could be that our only way out is down. Which I, as a burrowing animal, am used to experiencing. But you folks might dislike that my house has the smell of death and excrement and is pitch dark all the time. 

Posted by hedgehog

]]> By: Anonymous http://rhinocrisy.org/2005/09/if-this-is-the-only-answer-were-truly-fucked/#comment-175 Anonymous Fri, 23 Sep 2005 04:22:27 +0000 http://rhinocrisy.org/?p=420#comment-175 Not to be pedantic, but it wasn't the injured climber who cut his rope in <i>Touching the</i>  Void (understandable conflation with Into Thin Air by Krakauer), it was his friend above - to save himself. Which on makes for a more chilling metaphor when applied to your scenario, I guess!<br/><br/>Great post though, and lucky you for meeting Saheli, whose site I came from before visiting here. <br/><br/>Cheers! <br/><br/><a></a><a></a>Posted by<a><b> </b></a><a HREF="http://stribs.blogspot.com" REL="nofollow" TITLE="stribsOMITCAPS at hotmail dot com">Robert S.</a> Not to be pedantic, but it wasn’t the injured climber who cut his rope in Touching the  Void (understandable conflation with Into Thin Air by Krakauer), it was his friend above - to save himself. Which on makes for a more chilling metaphor when applied to your scenario, I guess!

Great post though, and lucky you for meeting Saheli, whose site I came from before visiting here.

Cheers! 

Posted by Robert S.

]]> By: Anonymous http://rhinocrisy.org/2005/09/if-this-is-the-only-answer-were-truly-fucked/#comment-174 Anonymous Fri, 23 Sep 2005 02:33:43 +0000 http://rhinocrisy.org/?p=420#comment-174 For the record, Dan, I was not creepy, and neither was Hedgehog for all his mysterious underground leanings. Blogconnecting is fun, and I highly recommend it. <br/>Here's my <a HREF="http://ssrdatta.blogspot.com/2005/09/peak-oil-charming-rhinocritic-hedgehog.html" REL="nofollow">peak oil post.</a>  :-)  <br/><br/><a></a><a></a>Posted by<a><b> </b></a><a HREF="http://ssrdatta.blogspot.com" REL="nofollow" TITLE="sahelidatta at hotmail dot com">Saheli</a> For the record, Dan, I was not creepy, and neither was Hedgehog for all his mysterious underground leanings. Blogconnecting is fun, and I highly recommend it.
Here’s my peak oil post.  :-)  

Posted by Saheli

]]> By: Anonymous http://rhinocrisy.org/2005/09/if-this-is-the-only-answer-were-truly-fucked/#comment-173 Anonymous Thu, 22 Sep 2005 23:52:50 +0000 http://rhinocrisy.org/?p=420#comment-173 Well, actually, the report was written by SAIC, the big military contractor full of ex-CIA and ex-DOD types. But it was commissioned by DOE. <br/><br/><a></a><a></a>Posted by<a><b> </b></a><a HREF="RHINOCRISY!" REL="nofollow" TITLE="">HEDGEHOG!</a> Well, actually, the report was written by SAIC, the big military contractor full of ex-CIA and ex-DOD types. But it was commissioned by DOE. 

Posted by HEDGEHOG!

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